As a candidate and as President, Trump has consistently disrupted political rules and norms. The data from Nebraska is limited, but the. And this map will be dynamic and change as the campaign unfolds and the candidates make their tough choices about where their time and resources are spent and where they are wasted. "[9] The Constitution describes two ways for holding a referendum: The Constitution explicitly states that a referendum can be called only on a Government Bill "which deals with the organization of the public authorities, or with reforms relating to the economic or social policy of the Nation, and to the public services contributing thereto, or which provides for authorization to ratify a treaty which, although not contrary to the Constitution, would affect the functioning of the institutions" (Article 11 of the Constitution[9]). Chances are that whoever wins the presidency will have a more comfortable margin than winning by the skin of their teeth. For municipal and European, but not national elections, citizens aged 18 or older of other European Union countries may vote in France. Will the country be in the midst of a resurgence of a spreading virus? So, don't let all those national polls showing a big advantage for Joe Biden cloud your vision too much. Nebraska, like Maine, gives an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. The other known is that American politics has been at some of its most polarized levels in history during the course of the Trump presidency, which means the bulk of the red vs. blue map is likely to remain unchanged from four years ago (or even 20 years ago for that matter). As well as presidential and legislative elections, France also has municipal, cantonal, regional, European, and (indirect) Senatorial elections. It will come into effect when appropriate legislation is implemented by the Parliament. The Trump campaign ended April with nearly twice as much cash on hand as the Biden campaign. Each state has as many "electors" in the Electoral College as it has Representatives and Senators in the United States Congress, and the District of Columbia has three electors. Regional elections have been held since 1986 to elect regional councillors and regional presidents: all elected to serve 6-year terms. And will the reenergized movement for racial justice in America as evidenced by the protests across the country in the wake of George Floyd's death translate into a voter surge in November? Biden begins his general election quest with a solid base of 190 electoral votes from 15 states and the District of Columbia. Updated 2:40 PM ET, Sat September 5, 2020. For the European Parliament elections, France is divided into 8 electoral regions that elect from 3 to 14 MEPs. Envoyer à un ami; Ajouter à "Mon Sénat" Agenda du Sénat. However, we thought now is as good a time as any to publish a baseline state-of-play electoral map upon which all of those great unknowns will play out and alter as the months between now and the election unfold. En Suisse, le Conseil fédéral (aussi surnommé le chef de l'État à sept têtes en raison de sa collégialité) est élu par un collège électoral, nommé Assemblée fédérale et composé de la réunion du Conseil national et du Conseil des États. Its goal is to reflect where the battle for 270 electoral votes is likely to be most engaged. It's been 144 years since the Electoral College (how we decide our presidents) was last decided by a mere 1 electoral … Modalités. If Trump were to win Florida again, Democrats would need to recapture three Midwestern states in the Rust Belt — or find substitutes — to win the presidency. Trump's campaign war chest is one of the clearest structural advantages he currently has in the race. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. It's been 144 years since the Electoral College (how we decide our presidents) was last decided by a mere 1 electoral vote. This is perhaps one of the easiest maps to imagine. To change a state’s party from solid or leans (Democratic or Republican) or to battleground, tap on an individual state below. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the 2020 presidential election. Here's the truth, Most memorable moments from past presidential debates, Biden reacts to Trump's nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, Pelosi: Our concern in the Supreme Court is the Affordable Care Act, GOP senator: We'll have a peaceful transfer in January 2025, Breaking down absentee ballots and when they are counted, Trump nominates Amy Coney Barrett for Supreme Court, Trump campaign falsely accuses Biden of teleprompter use, How Trump laid groundwork for election result mayhem, HHS secretary spotted without mask at Rose Garden event, Trump's border wall vs Biden's focus on asylum, State election official sounds alarm over 'secrecy envelope', Bloomberg pouring big money into major battleground state. The president is elected for a five-year term (previously, seven years), directly by the citizens. When you add in the 42 electoral votes that are leaning in his direction, it brings his total to 232 electoral votes -- just 38 away from winning the presidency. What will the continued impact of the coronavirus pandemic be this fall when voters train their minds on the choices before them for the presidency? (CNN)Long election nights are what make junkies go wild and partisans go crazy. A referendum may be held upon the initiative of one fifth of the Members of Parliament, supported by one tenth of the registered voters. Ratification of treaties of accession of states to the EU must go through the same procedure as amendment of Constitution of France. By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. The plan was to follow in the footsteps of the George W. Bush and Barack Obama reelection campaigns and do so immediately following the primary season, when Biden was low on cash and not yet fully staffed up and in fighting form for a general election campaign. There is a threshold of 5% in order for a party to achieve representation in the European Parliament. The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. Vous pouvez partager vos connaissances en l’améliorant (comment ?) Democracy would crash if the GOP goes along with a reported scheme to use state legislatures to pick compliant electoral college voters. This map relies upon looking at the larger trend driving our politics. The California of the French electoral college would be Île-de-France, the region that contains Paris. Over the coming months, states will move from lean to battleground status and back, but this initial snapshot is our best sense of where the campaigns believe the fall battle will be most engaged and where the most work will be done by both sides to sway voters to their candidate. Provisional Government of the French Republic, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Elections_in_France&oldid=973327492, All articles with vague or ambiguous time, Vague or ambiguous time from November 2016, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. We know Trump's base is White voters without college degrees, and he'll likely need to run up the score with them in 2020 to win a second term. One electoral vote goes to the winner in each of Nebraska's three congressional districts. En Allemagne, le Grand Électeur était également le nom donné à Frédéric Guillaume Ier de Brandebourg. Below you can pick an electoral map based on CNN's current race ratings, start with the 2016 election results or create your own map from scratch. As has become the norm in American presidential politics, the race to 270 electoral votes is almost certain to come down to a handful of battleground states. With the exception of senatorial election, for which there is an electoral college, the voters are French citizens over the age of 18 registered on the electoral rolls.People are automatically registered on reaching the age of 18. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the 2020 presidential election. For the allocation of seats both the Hare and the d’Hondt formulae are used. Les membres de ce groupe peuvent être désignés ou élus. It is an inaugural snapshot based upon conversations with Democratic and Republican operatives across the country, campaign aides and officeholders about how they all see the current landscape. And, eventually, all the component parts of modern-day campaigns will be playing a role in how it takes shape including polls, candidate visits, TV and digital ad buys, and the strength of campaign organizations on the ground. More than 50% of likely voters in the northern battlegrounds of Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be, You could also imagine this map if Trump gets penalized for the, The Trump campaign is hoping that the President's law and order message in the aftermath of protests following the killing of George Floyd in Minnesota and shooting of Jacob Blake in Wisconsin makes those states more hospitable to him. The former vice president has been working to close that gap as he attempts to consolidate all corners of the party following a competitive primary season that ended in March. Le collège électoral désigne un groupe de personnes restreint ayant les mêmes qualités et participant à une élection. That leaves us with six states worth a total of 101 electoral votes that will likely prove decisive in selecting the direction the country heads in for the next four years: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. La tradition installée depuis le XIVe siècle[Note 1] est que le nouveau pape soit élu parmi les membres du Sacré Collège, ce qui n'est en aucune façon obligatoire. Don’t mess with it. All of ratifications went through the super-majority of the Parliament, except the first EU enlargement in 1973. Les membres de ce groupe peuvent être désignés ou élus. premier mandat de président de la Cinquième République, https://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Collège_électoral&oldid=174869412, licence Creative Commons attribution, partage dans les mêmes conditions, comment citer les auteurs et mentionner la licence. 2nd round result. This map is not meant to be predictive of what it will look like in November. Registration is not compulsory, but the absence of registration precludes the possibility of voting. Modalités. Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (125 total), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Ohio (18), Texas (38) (80 total), Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10) (101 total), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Virginia (13) (42 total), California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12) (190 total), CNN poll: Trump sees big drop in approval rating, Hear Trump's response to NYT story about his taxes, Stelter: Trump will call this 'fake news.' There are more, but this gives you insight into how it could happen. Will the economic fallout from the spring shutdown have been contained by the fall? Just imagine all the above scenarios, but flipping the winner of Nebraska's 2nd District. The President and his campaign have already previewed lots of potential avenues they intend to pursue, but how those attacks land is still far from clear. An observatory of international voting intention trends, focused on upcoming elections anywhere in the world. Established in Article II, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution, the Electoral College is the formal body which elects the President and Vice President of the United States. La plupart des pays ont créé un collège électoral pour l'une ou l'autre des élections à une fonction ou un mandat politique. Le collège électoral désigne un groupe de personnes restreint ayant les mêmes qualités et participant à une élection. Trump starts with a solid base of 125 electoral votes from 20 states that are most likely to be uncontested in the fall. Historical examples of electoral colleges include Finland's, which elected the country's president from 1925 to 1988, exceptions are 1944 (exception law), 1946 (parliament) and 1973 (extended term by exception law). It's been more than 30 years since a winning presidential candidate won more than 400 electoral votes, so blowout presidential elections are hard to come by. The knowns at this point are pretty simple. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. La dernière modification de cette page a été faite le 20 septembre 2020 à 12:58. Yes, at this current snapshot in time, it is clear that Biden has the advantage both nationally and in many key battleground states. Un article de Wikipédia, l'encyclopédie libre. This raises another unknown. The Electoral College was never intended to be the “perfect” system for picking the president, says George Edwards III, emeritus political science professor at Texas A&M University. Dans ce dernier cas, le suffrage est indirect, car le collège (dont les membres sont parfois appelés grands électeurs) est le représentant des personnes les ayant élus. There is a threshold of 5% in order for a party to achieve representation in the European Parliament. Biden's leads in, Biden's win here is dependent on how he does in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Still, there are a number of different maps where either President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden wins the presidency with just 270 electoral votes, or where the two of them each get 269 electoral votes. There is. Les membres de ce groupe peuvent être désignés ou élus. Again, the data is limited from that district, so you could conceive of it going either way. States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Will a recovery be underway in a way most Americans can experience? If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. People are automatically registered on reaching the age of 18. The president is, Right now, that would likely mean Trump would win. ... des députés élus par les Français établis hors de France et des sénateurs représentant les Français établis hors de France, des conseillers consulaires, des délégués consulaires. This page was last edited on 16 August 2020, at 16:36. The unknowns are pretty clear at this point too. There are many more unknowns than knowns nearly five months prior to Election Day 2020. Safe is 15% or higher. Municipal elections to elect city mayors and councillors are held every six years. The Constitution of France defines in Article 3 that "National sovereignty shall vest in the people, who shall exercise it through their representatives and by means of referendum. There were 9 referendums in the Fifth Republic: Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen, French presidential election referendum of 1962, "Comment se déroulent les élections législatives". Here's the truth, Most memorable moments from past presidential debates, Biden reacts to Trump's nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, Pelosi: Our concern in the Supreme Court is the Affordable Care Act, GOP senator: We'll have a peaceful transfer in January 2025, Breaking down absentee ballots and when they are counted, Trump nominates Amy Coney Barrett for Supreme Court, Trump campaign falsely accuses Biden of teleprompter use, How Trump laid groundwork for election result mayhem, HHS secretary spotted without mask at Rose Garden event, Trump's border wall vs Biden's focus on asylum, State election official sounds alarm over 'secrecy envelope', Bloomberg pouring big money into major battleground state. French senators are renewed by halves every six years through an indirect electoral college composed of elected officials and general, regional, and some local councillors. Has the window closed for the President and his team to have a clean dominating shot at defining Biden in a negative light for voters? Selon les systèmes politiques, ces représentants peuvent ne pas avoir pour unique mandat la participation à l'élection, mais faire également partie d'une autre organisation ou entité politique. All you need to do is shift each of the states by 0.75 point in Biden's direction from, Looking at the polling averages right now, this isn't a hard map to imagine either. The Biden campaign hopes to seize on its current momentum by expanding the map and creating multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes while making Trump defend some states that have been reliably red in recent cycles. Republicans, How Trump could lose the popular vote by 5M and still win, Hear Trump's response to NYT story about his taxes, Stelter: Trump will call this 'fake news.' if the proposal fails on a referendum, it cannot be re-submitted to a referendum for next two years. En France, les grands électeurs sont les élus départementaux et municipaux du peuple français chargés de désigner les sénateurs, membres de la chambre haute du Parlement Scrutins indirects historiques Troisième ... représentant 95 % du collège électoral [3]. For the European Parliament elections, France is divided into 8 electoral regions that elect from 3 to 14 MEPs. This can happen a lot of ways. Will the country's assessment of how Trump performed in the handling of the crisis and the economic aftermath be as it is now? Collège électoral sénatorial. Par ailleurs, dans plusieurs pays, les grands électeurs désignent le chef d'État : Au sein de l'Église catholique romaine existe le Sacré Collège, composé des cardinaux, qui assiste le pape dans ses décisions, assure le gouvernement en cas de vacance de ce dernier et élit un nouveau pape après son décès. What happens if there is a tie? In Maine, two of four electoral votes go to the statewide winner and one electoral vote goes to the winner in each of the two congressional districts. L’article 6 de la Constitution du 4 octobre 1958 indique que le président de la République est élu pour sept ans « par un collège électoral comprenant les membres du Parlement, des conseils généraux et des assemblées des territoires d'outre-mer, ainsi que les représentants élus des conseils municipaux », ces derniers différant en fonction de la taille des communes [a]. it cannot be used to repeal laws which are in effect for less than a year, and. more information Accept. It is going to be a race between the incumbent, President. For the allocation of seats both the Hare and the d’Hondt formulae are used. Will Biden be perceived as an acceptable alternative for Americans who are displeased with the country's current course? L’article 6 de la Constitution du 4 octobre 1958 indique que le président de la République est élu pour sept ans « par un collège électoral comprenant les membres du Parlement, des conseils généraux et des assemblées des territoires d'outre-mer, ainsi que les représentants élus des conseils municipaux », ces derniers différant en fonction de la taille des communes [a]. European Election 2014 – Final projection, European election 2014 – Final projection, Austrian General Election 2013: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for Austria, European Elections 2014: Final Results for Belgium, Belgian Federal Election 2010: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for Belgium, Bulgarian General Election 2013: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for Bulgaria, Cypriot Presidential Election 2013: Final Results, Cypriot Parliamentary Election 2011: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for Cyprus, Czech General Election 2013: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for Czech Republic, Danish General Election 2011: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for Denmark, Estonian General Election 2011: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for Estonia, Finnish General Election 2011: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for Finland, French Parliamentary Election 2012: Final Results, French Presidential Election 2012: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for France, German Federal Election 2013: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for Germany, Greek Parliamentary Election 2012: Final Results, European Elections 2009: Final Results for Greece, United Kingdom General Election: 4 Dec 2013 poll, Scottish Independence Referendum: Final results, Greek Referendum poll: 3 July 2015 poll (Metron), Greek Referendum poll: 3 July 2015 poll (GPO), Greek Referendum poll: 3 July 2015 poll (Alco), Greek Referendum poll: 3 July 2015 poll (Public Issue), Greek Referendum poll: 3 July 2015 poll (Univ.